{
  "snapshot_utc": "2026-10-31T21:46:23.561241+00:00",
  "cost_references": [
    {
      "id": "K1",
      "url": "https://osnovanie-sk.ru/catalog/doma/do-100-m2/proekt_doma_a100_1/",
      "source_type": "contractor public page via web cache; local GET failed",
      "price_from_rub": 6500000,
      "area_m2": 119,
      "area_basis": "house119; terrace11.5 separately shown; titleA100 conflicts, use structured119",
      "package": "warm shell: foundation/walls/partitions/windows/roof",
      "exclusions": "finish/internal systems/external networks/plot/final estimate UNKNOWN",
      "normalised_from_rub_m2": 54621.8487394958,
      "quote_date": "UNKNOWN"
    },
    {
      "id": "K2",
      "url": "https://skvavilon33.ru/services/stroitelstvo-domov",
      "source_type": "contractor primary page and ordinary HTTP200 receipt",
      "price_from_rub_m2": 28000,
      "area_m2": 100,
      "package": "gasblock box only",
      "duration_claim": "85days/100m2, not project+sales duration",
      "exclusions": "windows/engineering/finish/site-specific budget UNKNOWN",
      "quote_date": "UNKNOWN"
    },
    {
      "id": "K3",
      "url": "https://ugsdom.ru/ceny/dom-iz-gazobetona-cena",
      "source_type": "contractor primary public page and ordinary HTTP200 receipt",
      "price_from_rub": 5200000,
      "area_m2": 100,
      "package": "warm shell, foundation/box/roof/insulation/windows/facade",
      "exclusions": "internal systems/finish/plumbing/equipment/external network limits priced separately",
      "normalised_from_rub_m2": 52000,
      "quote_date": "page2026; specific validity UNKNOWN"
    },
    {
      "id": "K4",
      "url": "https://gosbisnesstroy.ru/regions/vladimir",
      "source_type": "contractor primary page and ordinary HTTP200 receipt",
      "price_from_rub": 7198000,
      "area_m2": 105.5,
      "package": "ISTOK starting package; four readiness levels, final estimate required",
      "area_basis": "catalogue includes allfloors+terraces+porch, not equivalent to house internal total",
      "raw_advertised_from_rub_m2": 71000,
      "normalised_from_rub_m2": 68227.48815165876,
      "exclusions": "not a fully loaded subject-site quote; no plot/connection rights proof",
      "quote_date": "13.10.2026"
    }
  ],
  "price_assumptions": [
    {
      "scenario": "A",
      "achievable_price_rub": 3500000,
      "basis": "4core mixed land asks median100000RUB/sot ×50.3574sot≈5.036m; combined bulk/liquidity/negotiation reduction30%≈3.525m rounded3.5m. Not measured adjustment. Expanded river/wooded50sot ask3.5m is weak secondary context only.",
      "range_rub": [
        2500000,
        5000000
      ],
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "B",
      "achievable_unit_rub": 1200000,
      "basis": "net4235.742m2/4≈10.589sot; land asks100–110k/sot imply1.06–1.16m asking before services/negotiation.1.2m served-lot assumption; infrastructure rights/cost and premium unverified.",
      "range_rub": [
        900000,
        1500000
      ],
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "C",
      "achievable_unit_rub": 22000000,
      "basis": "Observed200/250m2 luxury asks18–25.8m, dissimilar plots/condition;22m is exploratory mid-range assumption, not owner100m example or achieved price.",
      "range_rub": [
        16000000,
        28000000
      ],
      "confidence": "VERY LOW"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "D/F",
      "achievable_unit_rub": 9500000,
      "basis": "Anchor110.5m2/15sot prefinish ask9.5m; illustrative additive adjustments +0.3m area,+0.8m completion,−0.4m smallerplot,−0.7m negotiation=9.5m. Alladjustments ASSUMPTION, no regression/transactions.",
      "range_rub": [
        7500000,
        11000000
      ],
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "E6",
      "achievable_unit_rub": 8000000,
      "basis": "Same9.5m anchor minus0.3m size,0.8m plot,1m negotiation/liquidity plus0.6m finish=8m. Smaller plot/batch absorption not measured.",
      "range_rub": [
        6500000,
        9500000
      ],
      "confidence": "VERY LOW"
    },
    {
      "scenario": "E8",
      "achievable_unit_rub": 7500000,
      "basis": "Same anchor minus0.3m size,1m plot,1.3m negotiation/liquidity plus0.6m finish=7.5m. Net529m2/plot is below old conditional600m2 assumption; legal/physical feasibility UNKNOWN.",
      "range_rub": [
        6000000,
        9000000
      ],
      "confidence": "VERY LOW"
    }
  ],
  "unknowns": [
    "legalPZZ/subdivision/access/networks/permits",
    "actual active transaction price/absorption",
    "owner tax/legal entity/capital/risk/financing",
    "subject-specific fixed/site/external connection quote"
  ],
  "defaults_status": {
    "shellRate": "55000RUB/total m2: rounded warm-shell K1/K3 reference; scope not identical",
    "finishRate": "20000RUB/total m2 ASSUMPTION, internal systems+finish; external unit connections separate",
    "premiumRates": "70000shell+35000finish ASSUMPTION, not a quote",
    "fixed_and_unit_site": "planning/subdivision/roads/utilities/unit hookups are budget ASSUMPTIONS, not official tariffs or rights verification",
    "contingencyPct": "10% on building shell+finish only, fully budgeted spend above quote; not duplicate site contingency",
    "tailPct": "2% building budget at eachsale+3months, full spend assumption for closing/defect reserve, not statutory warranty rule",
    "taxPct": "6% revenue withholding RESERVE, not established tax rate. Actualtax/entity/deductions UNKNOWN;0 is a user assumption, not exemption",
    "finance": "base no debt is scenario only.24% nominal annual interest/12 and1% draw fee editable ASSUMPTIONS, no bank quote; full-month current draws charged; principal not profit/cost",
    "time": "prep/build/saleLag/absorption/phase are ASSUMPTIONS; no listing firstseen/exposure/transactions support actual sell-through",
    "land": "owned land purchased0cash, net near-term Amonetization subtracted once as opportunityvalue; baseline at month2, undiscounted nominal, not an appraised present value",
    "inflation": "base0 price/cost escalation, optional separate annual factors applied once at payment/closing; no NPV/IRR claimed",
    "staging": "1–2units after priorphase sells; fixed site costs upfront. Stop leaves unbuilt/unsold land noncash, completion/rank N/A",
    "finance_cash_management": "loan finances eligible current monthly deficits, surplus repays debt; equityCF is money available/to supply, not a dividend plan or optimized cash sweep"
  }
}